It has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride the past two weeks with my top picks for FootBall.US, but I am still ahead of the game at 4-2. The following is a look at my top three picks for this Saturday’s slate involving teams from the AAC, the ACC and the SEC. All picks are based on current betting odds from 5Dimes.
Saturday, Oct. 31
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-10) at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Clemson is not only the top team in the ACC this season at 7-0 straight-up (4-3 against the spread), it is in great position to lay claim to one of the four sports in this year’s College Football Playoff. The Tigers are the real deal behind an offense that is gaining 465.4 yards a game and scoring an average of 38 points. Add in a defense that is ranked seventh in points allowed (14.3) and it is hard to see any team in this conference derailing this run.
The Wolfpack look pretty good on paper with a 5-2 record both SU and ATS, but most of that was built around a very soft nonconference schedule. NC State has already lost to Louisville as a home favorite and it was beaten by Virginia Tech 35-17 as a 2.5-point road underdog on Oct. 9. The Wolfpack did bounce back with a 35-17 victory against Wake Forest this past Saturday as 8.5-point favorites on the road, but I do not see them having what it takes to keep this game closer than 10 points.
No. 11 Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (+3)
The Gators will have had two weeks to stew over their 35-28 loss to LSU on Oct. 17 as six-point road underdogs heading into this neutral-site SEC East clash at EverBank Field in Jacksonville. There is no doubt that Florida has one of the top defenses in the conference with a points allowed average of 17.3, but I tend to believe that the team as a whole was a bit overrated heading into that game against LSU. The loss of quarterback Will Grier due to suspension does not help the cause.
Georgia was also a bit overrated after reeling off four SU wins to start the season and its defense was exposed in back-to-back losses to Alabama at home and Tennessee on the road. Adding injury to insult, the Bulldogs also lost their top rusher on the year, Nick Chubbs in that shocking loss to the Volunteers. I am actually riding the revenge factor in this Saturday’s game. Georgia had beaten Florida three-straight times before last season’s 38-20 loss as an 11.5-point home favorite. I will take the Bulldogs and the three points this time around.
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 18 Houston Cougars (-14)
The Commodores are coming off a tight 10-3 victory against Missouri as 1.5-point home underdogs in their first SEC win on the year. They are 3-4 SU overall with a 4-2-1 record ATS. Vanderbilt has not scored more than 17 points in six of seven games and it is ranked 119th in Division IA in scoring with an average of 18 points a game. The Commodores have remained stout on defense with a points-allowed average of 16.3.
Houston is one of three teams in the up-and-coming AAC that is undefeated on the year and ranked in the AP’s current Top 25. The Cougars are also one of the better defensive teams in the nation with a points-allowed average of 19.7, but the main reason I like them to cover the two-touchdown spread in this matchup is an offense that is cranking-out an average of 561.2 total yards a game. This has resulted in a scoring average of 47 points a game that is ranked fourth in the country.
Leave a Reply